Whale Cycle

Will BTC reclaim $100k soon?

BestFees Editorial
15 min read
Published: November 20, 2025

Scenario analysis for a return to six figures based on flows and macro.

BTCscenariosmacro

Introduction: Scenarios, Not Predictions

“Will BTC reclaim $100k soon?” The honest answer is scenario-dependent. Price follows structure: forced sellers exhaust, whales accumulate, cohorts upgrade, and cost baselines re-base; only then does durable trend strength emerge. This piece presents a scenario framework anchored in flows, cohorts, and cost curves, avoiding prediction theater.

Interlinking references:

1) Structural Preconditions for Six Figures

Exhaustion and repair:

  • Liquidation prints decline; OI stabilizes; funding/basis normalize.
  • Cross-venue buy/sell >1 sustained 3–7 days; taker buy volume rises.
  • LTH add/hold; STH pressure eases; UTXO ages shift older; dormancy stabilizes.
  • Realized Price re-basing under/near spot and rising.
  • Whale supply and net position increase; accumulation trend scores up.

If these conditions persist, odds of reclaiming $100k—first as a retest, later as a base—improve materially.

2) Scenario Map: Base, Break, and Build

Scenario A: Base

  • Structure strong; price consolidates under prior highs.
  • Multiple retests; volatility quality improves; divergence narrows.
  • Outcome: foundation for sustainable break.

Scenario B: Break

  • Price pushes through resistance as structure remains strong.
  • Follow-through driven by continued ratio persistence and cohort upgrades.
  • Outcome: trend renewal; pullbacks find higher support.

Scenario C: Build

  • After break, market builds higher bases; Realized Price rises.
  • LTH grows; whale supply climbs; drawdowns shallow.

3) Macro and Liquidity Context

Macro matters, but flows dominate timing:

  • Within neutral or improving macro regimes, structural repair can carry price back to six figures.
  • Under adverse macro shocks, repair pauses; price acceptance lags; tranches and hedges remain essential.

Institutions:

  • Governance triggers scale-in when dashboards confirm; basis/option overlays taper as confirmation increases.

See: How institutions buy bottoms.

4) Price–Flow Divergence: Avoid Illusion Breakouts

Illusion breakouts occur when price jumps on thin structure; failure probability is high. Focus on fake-weakness buys (structure strong, price weak) and real-strength breaks (structure strong, price strong).

See: Whale activity divergence vs BTC price.

5) Indicators That Increase Probability of $100k Reclaim

  • Ratios >1 across venues sustained for weeks, not days.
  • LTH adds/holds; STH pressure reduced; older UTXO bands thickening.
  • Realized Price rising steadily; MVRV normalizing without euphoria.
  • Whale supply/net position rising; accumulation trend scores strong.
  • Declining liquidation prints; OI rebuilding on cleaner bases.

See: Buy/sell ratio signals and Realized price vs market price: bottom detector.

6) Risks and Alternative Paths

  • Macro shock: policy surprises or global liquidity squeezes.
  • Residual forced sellers: redemption cycles re-emerge; liquidation spikes.
  • Single-venue illusions: brief ratio spikes without breadth or persistence.
  • Thin rebounds: price up, structure weak—risk of reversal.

Mitigations:

  • Maintain tranches and overlays; size exposure by structure, not headlines.
  • Require breadth and persistence: multiple venues, long windows.
  • Verify cohorts and cost curves; monitor dormancy/CDD.

7) 30–90 Day Pathway After Peak Accumulation

Historical pattern:

  • Weeks 1–2: residual retests; ratios hold; cohorts improve.
  • Weeks 3–6: consolidation; Realized Price rises; divergence narrows.
  • Weeks 6–12: price aligns; trend strengthens; break attempts become durable.

See: What happens after the biggest whale week and What to expect in the next 30 days.

8) Execution Checklist for a $100k Reclaim Campaign

  • Detect exhaustion via liquidations/OI/funding/basis normalization.
  • Confirm repair via ratio persistence and cohort upgrades.
  • Tie scaling to Realized Price rising and divergence narrowing.
  • Execute TWAP/VWAP + OTC; use iceberg and venue routing.
  • Overlay basis/options early; taper with confirmation.

9) Retail Guidance: Scenario-Based Discipline

  • Pre-commit tranches; avoid bottom-tick obsession.
  • Anchor on dashboards; ignore headline noise.
  • Avoid leverage during repair; expand risk budgets with confirmation.

See: Why retail always sells bottoms.

10) Case References: 2021 and 2025

  • July 2021: base → break → build sequence; structure led price.
  • November 2025: peak accumulation during exhaustion; structure-first recovery; break attempts grew more durable as repair persisted.

See: July 2021 vs Nov 2025 – pattern comparison and Biggest whale accumulation week of 2025 explained.

Conclusion and Next Steps

Reclaiming $100k is not a prediction; it is the result of sustained structural repair. Monitor dashboards, scale entries with tranches and overlays, and let breadth and persistence in signals guide conviction. When structure leads, six figures follow.

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