Whale Cycle

What to expect in the next 30 days

BestFees Editorial
15 min read
Published: November 20, 2025

Near-term expectations for volatility, flows, and positioning after whale peaks.

outlook30 daysvolatility

Introduction: From Peak Activity to Practical Positioning

After a whale peak—a week of concentrated accumulation—the next 30 days typically feature repair-to-confirmation dynamics: elevated but improving volatility, retests, consolidation, and then alignment of price with structure. This guide lays out expectations, signals to watch, and how to position with discipline.

It interlinks with core hub articles:

Week 1: Retests and Ratio Persistence

Expect:

  • Residual forced-selling events; retests of local lows.
  • Buy/sell ratios persist in long windows across venues.
  • LTH growth; STH pressure easing.
  • Realized Price near/under spot with initial repair.

Positioning:

  • Maintain tranches; avoid oversized bets.
  • Use TWAP/VWAP and consider OTC blocks for size fills.

Week 2: Depth Rebuilds and Divergence Narrows

Expect:

  • Order-book depth improves; spreads narrow.
  • Taker buy volume rises; ratios stable.
  • Divergence (structure vs price) begins to narrow.

Positioning:

  • Increase size modestly as dashboard signals align.
  • Keep hedge overlays if liquidations remain elevated.

Weeks 3–4: Consolidation Ranges

Expect:

  • Sideways ranges; fewer large liquidation prints.
  • Realized Price edges up; MVRV normalizes.
  • Whale supply rises; net position positive.

Positioning:

  • Scale entries with confirmation; reduce hedges.
  • Consider rotating into majors with stronger structural scores.

Signal Checklist for 30 Days

  • Ratios >1 in long windows across 3–4 venues.
  • LTH add/hold; STH pressure easing.
  • Realized Price re-basing near/under spot.
  • Liquidations declining; OI/funding/basis normalizing.
  • Whale supply rising; net position positive.
  • Divergence narrowing; price alignment.

See: Whale Transactions 2025 Dashboard.

Case Study: 30-Day Path After November 2025 Peak

  • Week 1: retests; ratios held; cohorts improved.
  • Week 2: depth rebuild; divergence narrowed.
  • Weeks 3–4: consolidation; Realized Price rose; price later confirmed.

See: Biggest whale accumulation week of 2025 explained.

Risks and Mitigations

  • Residual forced-seller spikes: size entries cautiously; maintain hedges.
  • Single-venue signals: require cross-venue ratio persistence.
  • Thin rebounds: avoid chasing without cohort and cost-curve support.

Execution Playbook for 30 Days

  • Detect: dashboard exhaustion signals.
  • Confirm: ratios, cohorts, Realized Price.
  • Execute: TWAP/VWAP + OTC; tranches.
  • Scale: reduce hedges as confirmation increases.

Institutional Overlay

Institutions scale programs as governance approves thresholds based on dashboard signals. Liquidity mapping improves average costs; basis/option overlays taper with confirmation.

See: How institutions buy bottoms.

Conclusion and Next Steps

The next 30 days after a whale peak are about sustained repair. Retests are features, not bugs, if structure persists. Use dashboards, follow the checklist, and let structure lead entries.

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