Whale Cycle

July 2021 vs Nov 2025 – pattern comparison

BestFees Editorial
15 min read
Published: November 20, 2025

Comparative study of accumulation, deleveraging, and recovery across two cycle bottoms.

patterns20212025

Introduction: Two Bottoms, One Playbook

Crypto history rarely repeats perfectly, but it rhymes. The July 2021 base and the November 2025 accumulation window share common structural features: forced sellers exhausting, whales accumulating, Realized Price re-basing, and cohort improvements. Price confirmed late in both cases. By comparing these patterns, we can refine a structure-first playbook.

This comparative study ties into the broader hub:

1) Macro and Market Context

July 2021:

  • Post-May deleveraging; miners sold more; funding and basis stressed.
  • Contagion risks were localized; governance cycles reset risk budgets.
  • Sentiment depressed; Realized Price proximity to spot.

November 2025:

  • Larger market; deeper liquidity; whales more sophisticated.
  • Forced sellers during volatility shocks; redemption chains shorter.
  • Sentiment fearful; cost curves re-based with whale participation.

Despite differences, both periods exhibited the same core repair mechanics.

2) Forced Sellers: Exhaustion Signatures

Both periods transitioned from liquidation cascades to exhaustion:

  • Liquidation prints diminished; OI stabilized.
  • Funding and basis normalized from extremes.
  • Exchange net inflows moderated; taker buy volume increased.

See: Forced seller patterns in crypto.

3) Buy/Sell Ratio: Cross-Venue Persistence

In July 2021 and Nov 2025 alike, the buy/sell ratio elevated in long windows across venues:

  • Sustained >1 ratios indicated strong-hand execution.
  • Order-book depth improved post-shakeout.
  • Ratios confirmed accumulation beyond price bounces.

See: Buy/sell ratio signals.

4) Realized Price: Cost Re-Basing

Realized Price repaired in both cases:

  • Spot dipped under or neared Realized Price during panic.
  • Subsequent re-basing signaled consolidation in stronger hands.
  • Price confirmed later as structure mended.

See: Realized price vs market price: bottom detector.

5) LTH/STH: Cohort Upgrades

In both periods:

  • LTH added or held; STH sell pressure eased.
  • UTXO age distributions shifted to older bands.
  • Dormancy and CDD moved in patterns consistent with consolidation.

See: Long-term holder vs short-term holder signals.

6) Whale Supply and Accumulation Trend

Whale cohorts showed net position increases and improved Accumulation Trend Scores in both windows. Exchange addresses required careful interpretation; execution-side confirmation was key.

See: Glassnode whale wallet metrics explained.

7) Price–Flow Divergence: Fake-Weak vs Fake-Strong

Both periods exhibited fake-weakness during repair: price lagged structure. Post-repair rallies later faced fake-strong risks when ratios and cohorts weakened; discerning these regimes prevented chasing and improved entries.

See: Whale activity divergence vs BTC price.

8) Timeline Comparison: Phases and Tempo

Phase A: Shock

  • Volatility spikes; liquidations cascade; redemption pressure rises.

Phase B: Exhaustion Setup

  • Liquidation prints decline; OI/funding/basis normalize.

Phase C: Accumulation Confirmation

  • Ratios >1 in long windows; LTH adds/holds; Realized Price re-bases.

Phase D: Price Confirmation

  • Trend shifts from repair to advance; volatility becomes “higher quality.”

Both July 2021 and Nov 2025 mapped closely to this tempo, albeit on different scales.

9) Strategy Lessons from the Comparison

  • Structure-first: prioritize ratios, cohorts, Realized Price over candles.
  • Cross-venue: avoid single-venue misreads; whales fragment execution.
  • Tranching: scale entries as confirmation mounts; avoid bottom-tick obsession.
  • Hedges: maintain overlays when forced sellers remain active.

See: How to identify a cycle bottom.

10) Institutional Angle: Governance and Liquidity

Institutions scaled TWAP/VWAP/OTC programs post-exhaustion in both windows, aligning governance approvals with structural signals. Liquidity mapping—venue depth, session overlaps—improved average costs.

See: How institutions buy bottoms.

11) Dashboard Template for Pattern Tracking

Include:

  • Liquidations, OI, funding, basis.
  • Cross-venue buy/sell ratios (short/long windows).
  • LTH/STH, UTXO ages, dormancy, CDD.
  • Realized Price vs spot.
  • Whale supply, net position, Accumulation Trend Scores.

Start with: Whale Transactions 2025 Dashboard.

12) Conclusion: Rhymes Worth Trading

July 2021 and November 2025 demonstrate that exhaustion → accumulation → repair → confirmation is the crypto bottom rhythm. By trading the rhyme—structure not sentiment—you avoid selling bottoms and chasing tops.

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