Whale Cycle

Long-term holder vs short-term holder signals

BestFees Editorial
15 min read
Published: November 20, 2025

Interpreting LTH/STH behavior shifts as early cycle bottom detectors.

LTHSTHsignals

Introduction: Holder Quality Drives Trend Quality

Bottoms form when chips move from reactive hands to patient hands. In cohort analytics, that means Short-Term Holders (STH) cede coins to Long-Term Holders (LTH). LTH tolerate drawdowns and time; STH react to price swings. Tracking LTH/STH behavior provides early detection of structural repair—often before price confirms.

This guide explains LTH/STH signals, how to combine them with buy/sell ratios, Realized Price, forced-seller events, and whale supply, and how to convert observations into disciplined entries. It interlinks with:

1) Definitions and Thresholds

  • LTH: coins aged beyond a threshold (commonly 155 days); holders less reactive; cost curves matter.
  • STH: coins aged under the threshold; holders more reactive; sentiment-driven.

The threshold is heuristic; maintain consistency within one methodology.

2) Why LTH/STH Signals Matter

Structural repair requires chip transfer to strong hands:

  • LTH add/hold during fear; their growth indicates consolidation in patient cohorts.
  • STH sell pressure eases as forced sellers exhaust; churn declines.

Combined with execution-side confirmation (buy/sell ratios), LTH/STH behavior becomes a leading indicator of bottom formation.

3) Observable Metrics

  • LTH supply change; STH supply change.
  • UTXO age distribution (“HODL waves”).
  • Dormancy and Coin Days Destroyed (CDD).
  • Exchange flows by cohort where available.

Interpretation requires context: verify with taker buy volume and buy/sell ratios.

See: Buy/sell ratio signals.

4) Interaction with Realized Price

When LTH grow and STH pressure fades, Realized Price tends to re-base and repair. If Realized Price rises but LTH do not, the repair is thin and vulnerable.

See: Realized price vs market price: bottom detector.

5) Forced Sellers: The Transition Catalyst

Liquidation chains, redemptions, and miner selling transfer coins from reactive to patient holders. This process is noisy on price but clear in cohorts: STH shrink; LTH grow. Exhaustion signatures include:

  • Declining liquidation prints; stable OI.
  • Normalized funding and basis.
  • Moderating exchange net inflows.

See: Forced seller patterns in crypto.

6) Whale Supply: Cohort Alignment

Whale supply increases often align with LTH growth. This joint signal—whales + LTH rising—is a powerful indicator of repair and future trend quality.

See: Glassnode whale wallet metrics explained.

7) Price–Flow Divergence: Early Reads

If LTH grows, STH pressure eases, and ratios improve while price remains weak, it’s fake-weakness—a repair phase. Conversely, if price rallies while LTH/STH fail to confirm, it’s fake-strength.

See: Whale activity divergence vs BTC price.

8) Case Studies: July 2021 and November 2025

Both periods showed LTH growth and STH pressure easing during repair. Realized Price re-based; buy/sell ratios persisted; whales accumulated. Price confirmed later—structure led.

See: July 2021 vs Nov 2025 – pattern comparison and Biggest whale accumulation week of 2025 explained.

9) Practical Playbook: From Signals to Entries

Routine:

  • Monitor LTH growth and STH pressure weekly.
  • Cross-check ratios (>1 in long windows) and taker buy volume.
  • Validate Realized Price repair and forced-seller exhaustion.
  • Confirm whale supply and accumulation scores.

If 3+ signals align, begin tranching entries; scale as confirmation mounts.

10) Pitfalls: Misreads and Data Artifacts

  • Threshold variability: stay consistent.
  • Exchange/custody address artifacts: confirm intent via execution signals.
  • Single-venue ratio reliance: demand cross-venue persistence.

11) Dashboard: Operable Cohort Monitoring

Include:

  • LTH/STH supply changes.
  • UTXO age distribution.
  • Dormancy and CDD.
  • Buy/sell ratios (short/long windows) across venues.
  • Realized Price vs spot.
  • Liquidations, OI, funding, basis.
  • Whale supply and net position.

Start with: Whale Transactions 2025 Dashboard.

12) Conclusion and Next Steps

LTH/STH signals distill holder quality, the backbone of durable trends. Combine cohorts with buy/sell ratios, Realized Price, and forced-seller context to detect bottoms as processes, not points.

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