Whale Cycle

Realized price vs market price: bottom detector

BestFees Editorial
15 min read
Published: November 20, 2025

Using realized price and cost basis to frame bottom probabilities.

realized pricebottommetrics

Introduction: Cost Curves Tell the Truth

Price is the market’s surface. Cost baselines—like Realized Price—tell us about the structure beneath. When spot trades below Realized Price and then recovers, the market has likely transitioned through a post-shakeout repair where chips migrate from weak hands to strong hands. In crypto, this dynamic often accompanies forced sellers, whale accumulation, and improvements in LTH/STH cohorts.

This article explains Realized Price, connects it with bottom detection, and shows how to combine it with buy/sell ratios, cohort signals, and price–flow divergence. It interlinks with companion guides for a complete framework:

1) What Is Realized Price?

Realized Price is derived from Realized Cap—the sum of all coin values at their last transacted prices—divided by supply. It approximates the market’s average cost basis. When spot is above Realized Price, holders on average sit at profit; below, they sit at loss.

Why it matters:

  • It reacts to coin movements, not just price. Selling old coins reduces Realized Cap; accumulating on the cheap can lower cost baselines.
  • It helps detect post-shakeout repair: spot dips under, then both spot and Realized Price rise as stronger hands consolidate.

2) Realized Price vs Spot: The Bottom Detector Logic

Scenarios:

  • Spot < Realized Price: a stress regime; many holders at loss; forced sellers likely active.
  • Spot recovers toward/above Realized Price: repair underway; chips concentrate in stronger hands; price begins reflecting improved structure.

The most potent signal is not a single cross but the combination of Realized Price repair with buy/sell ratio persistence, LTH/STH improvement, and whale supply increases.

See: Buy/sell ratio signals, Long-term holder vs short-term holder signals, and Glassnode whale wallet metrics explained.

3) MVRV and Related Metrics

While Realized Price alone is powerful, many traders use MVRV (Market Value / Realized Value) to contextualize valuation extremes. Low MVRV signals undervaluation relative to cost basis; high MVRV signals potential froth. Combine MVRV with cohort behavior for more robust conclusions.

4) Cohorts and Cost Curves: Why LTH/STH Matter

Realized Price improves sustainably when LTH adds/holds and STH sell pressure fades. LTH are less reactive and form the backbone of durable trends. If Realized Price is repairing but cohorts are not, the repair may be thin and prone to failure.

See: Long-term holder vs short-term holder signals.

5) Forced Sellers: The Catalyst for Cost Re-Basing

Liquidations, redemptions, miner cash-flow selling, and risk-budget resets flood markets with passive supply. This drives spot below Realized Price. As forced sellers exhaust, whales absorb inventory at lower averages, re-basing Realized Price. Monitoring exhaustion is crucial:

  • Liquidation prints diminish; OI stabilizes.
  • Funding and basis normalize.
  • Exchange net inflows moderate; taker buy volume increases.

See: Forced seller patterns in crypto.

6) Buy/Sell Ratio: Execution Confirmation

Realized Price changes when coins move. The buy/sell ratio tells us whether movement is active buying or active selling. A sustained ratio >1 across venues and long windows confirms strong-hand execution. This is essential when spot is near/under Realized Price—repair without execution is unreliable.

See: Buy/sell ratio signals.

7) Price–Flow Divergence: Trust Structure Over Candles

When spot stays weak but Realized Price and structural signals improve, the weakness is fake—created by forced supply. Conversely, spot strength without Realized Price repair and cohort improvements is fake-strong. Use divergence analysis to avoid chasing or capitulating wrongly.

See: Whale activity divergence vs BTC price.

8) Case Studies: July 2021 vs November 2025

Case A: July 2021

  • Spot dipped under Realized Price amid forced selling.
  • Buy/sell ratios rose in long windows; LTH improved.
  • Realized Price repaired; trend confirmed later.

Case B: November 2025

9) Practical Framework: From Signals to Execution

Weekly routine:

  • Realized Price vs spot: under/near with repair starting?
  • Buy/sell ratios: >1 in long windows across venues?
  • Cohorts: LTH adding/holding; STH sell pressure easing?
  • Forced sellers: liquidation prints down; OI/funding/basis normalize?
  • Whale supply: net position positive; Accumulation Trend Score up?

If 4+ items align, structure-first entries are justified.

10) Pitfalls: Misreads and Single-Metric Reliance

  • Treat Realized Price as one part of structure; seek resonance.
  • Beware custody/exchange address artifacts in wallet data.
  • Avoid single-venue ratio conclusions; whales fragment execution.

11) Dashboard: Make Cost Curves Operable

Include:

  • Realized Price vs spot.
  • Buy/sell ratios (short/long windows) across venues.
  • LTH/STH behavior, UTXO ages, dormancy, CDD.
  • Liquidations, OI, funding, basis.
  • Whale supply, net position, Accumulation Trend Scores.

Start with: Whale Transactions 2025 Dashboard.

12) Conclusion and Next Steps

Realized Price translates price noise into cost structure. Bottoms are detected not by a single cross but by multi-signal repair: Realized Price re-basing, ratios elevated, cohorts improving, forced sellers exhausting, whale supply rising. Let structure lead; let price confirm.

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