6 indicators the bottom is in

Introduction: A Checklist That Trades Structure, Not Emotion

Cycle bottoms are processes. To avoid bottom-selling and top-chasing, use a multi-signal checklist that captures repair across flows, leverage, cohorts, and cost curves. This guide provides six indicators, how to verify them, and how to move from observation to execution.

Complementary reading:

Indicator 1: Forced Seller Exhaustion

Signals:

Liquidation prints decline; open interest stabilizes.
Funding and basis normalize from extremes.
Exchange net inflows moderate.

Why it matters: exhausts passive supply; opens windows for whales.

See: Forced seller patterns in crypto.

Indicator 2: Buy/Sell Ratios >1 in Long Windows Across Venues

Signals:

Sustained >1 in 3–7 day windows.
Cross-venue consistency and tempo stability.
Rising taker buy volume and order-book depth.

Why it matters: confirms active strong-hand execution.

See: Buy/sell ratio signals.

Indicator 3: LTH Add/Hold, STH Pressure Eases

Signals:

LTH supply rises; STH churn declines.
UTXO age bands shift older; dormancy stabilizes.

Why it matters: upgrades holder quality; enables durable trends.

See: Long-term holder vs short-term holder signals.

Indicator 4: Realized Price Re-Basing Near/Under Spot

Signals:

Spot near/under Realized Price during stress.
Realized Price repairs post-shakeout.

Why it matters: cost baselines reset as chips consolidate.

See: Realized price vs market price: bottom detector.

Indicator 5: Whale Supply and Accumulation Trend Scores Rise

Signals:

Whale net position positive; supply held by whales rises.
Accumulation Trend Scores elevate across cohorts.

Why it matters: validates strong-hand participation.

See: Glassnode whale wallet metrics explained.

Indicator 6: Price–Flow Divergence Narrows

Signals:

During repair: fake-weakness (structure strong, price weak) transitions to price confirmation.
Thin rebounds fade when structure is weak (fake-strength).

Why it matters: decides whether to scale entries or wait.

See: Whale activity divergence vs BTC price.

Putting It Together: The Bottom-In Scorecard

Weekly checks:

Exhaustion (liquidations/OI/funding/basis)?
Ratios >1 across venues in long windows?
LTH add/hold; STH pressure easing?
Realized Price repair near/under spot?
Whale supply/net position positive; accumulation score up?
Divergence narrowing toward price confirmation?

If 4+ items are positive, the bottom-in probability is high. Begin tranching entries and scaling programs.

Case Studies: July 2021, November 2025

Both periods achieved 4–6 checklist items before price confirmation. Structure-first entries outperformed sentiment-driven timing.

See: July 2021 vs Nov 2025 – pattern comparison and Biggest whale accumulation week of 2025 explained.

Execution: From Scorecard to Orders

Use TWAP/VWAP across venues; add OTC blocks where feasible.
Overlay basis and options if forced sellers still linger.
Adjust size with each additional positive item.

Pitfalls: Avoid False Positives

Single-venue ratio spikes without cross-venue consistency.
Custody/exchange artifacts misread as whale accumulation.
Sentiment-based decisions without structure confirmation.

Dashboard: Make the Checklist Operable

Include:

Liquidations, OI, funding, basis.
Buy/sell ratios (short/long windows) across venues.
LTH/STH, UTXO ages, dormancy, CDD.
Realized Price vs spot.
Whale supply, net position, Accumulation Trend Scores.
Price–flow divergence trackers.

Start with: Whale Transactions 2025 Dashboard.

Conclusion and Next Steps

A bottom is not a tick; it is a multi-signal repair. When forced sellers exhaust, ratios persist, cohorts improve, cost curves re-base, whale supply rises, and divergence narrows, you have a tradeable bottom. Execute with discipline; let structure lead.

Continue with: