Whale Cycle

Market cycle: late correction or bear market?

BestFees Editorial
15 min read
Published: November 20, 2025

Distinguishing cyclical corrections from regime changes using structural signals.

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Introduction: Read Structure, Not Headlines

“Is this a late-cycle correction or the start of a bear market?” The answer lies not in headlines, but in structure: forced sellers, buy/sell ratios, holder cohorts, cost baselines, and price–flow divergence. Corrections show repair after stress; bears show deterioration and thin structures masked by temporary rallies.

This guide builds a decision framework to separate corrections from bears, linking to core signals across the hub:

1) Structural Markers: Correction vs Bear

Corrections (late-cycle stress):

  • Forced sellers exhaust: liquidation prints down; OI/funding/basis normalize.
  • Buy/sell ratios elevate in long windows across venues.
  • LTH add/hold; STH sell pressure declines.
  • Realized Price re-bases near/under spot then repairs.
  • Whale supply rises; net position positive.

Bears (regime deterioration):

  • Forced selling persists; liquidation/redemption chains extend.
  • Buy/sell ratios fail to persist; cross-venue inconsistency.
  • LTH distribute; STH churn remains high.
  • Realized Price falls without repair; cost baselines deteriorate.
  • Whale supply stalls or declines; accumulation scores weak.

2) Price–Flow Divergence as the Decider

Corrections often show fake-weakness: price soft while structure mends. Bears often show fake-strength: price bounces on thin structure. This lens prevents both bottom-selling and top-chasing.

See: Whale activity divergence vs BTC price.

3) Cohort Behavior: LTH/STH Signal Quality

LTH vs STH determines holder quality:

  • Corrections: LTH grow; STH pressure fades.
  • Bears: LTH shrink; STH churn persists.

Cross-check with UTXO age distributions and dormancy/CDD to confirm.

See: Long-term holder vs short-term holder signals.

4) Buy/Sell Ratios: Execution Persistence

Corrections require persistent buy/sell ratios >1 in long windows and across venues. Bears show sporadic spikes only in short windows, lacking cross-venue consistency.

See: Buy/sell ratio signals.

5) Realized Price: Cost Baseline Integrity

Corrections: Realized Price re-bases and repairs; bears: Realized Price decays. This is the cost-curve truth beneath price.

See: Realized price vs market price: bottom detector.

6) Whale Supply and Accumulation Trends

Corrections: whale supply and net positions increase; accumulation scores rise. Bears: whales reduce or stall.

See: Glassnode whale wallet metrics explained.

7) Macro and Leverage Context

Macro regimes matter:

  • Corrections: stress within an intact macro context; risk budgets reset then reopen.
  • Bears: macro headwinds align with structural deterioration; funding cost and liquidity shrink.

Leverage:

  • Corrections: deleveraging clears and rebuilds on cleaner bases.
  • Bears: persistent deleveraging without rebuilding; basis and funding remain unhealthy.

8) Case Mapping: July 2021 vs Nov 2025

Both periods formed late-cycle corrections, not bears:

  • Forced sellers exhausted; ratios sustained; LTH/STH improved; Realized Price repaired.
  • Whale supply rose; price confirmed later.

See: July 2021 vs Nov 2025 – pattern comparison and Biggest whale accumulation week of 2025 explained.

9) Decision Framework: Trade the Structure

Checklist for “correction” vs “bear”:

  • Liquidations down; OI/funding/basis normalize? (correction)
  • Ratios >1 across venues in long windows? (correction)
  • LTH add/hold; STH pressure easing? (correction)
  • Realized Price re-basing? (correction)
  • Whale supply/net position positive? (correction)

If 3+ items fail, bias to “bear.” If 4+ items succeed, bias to “correction.”

10) Execution: Tranching and Hedges

Corrections: scale entries with structure; use minimal hedges.

Bears: preserve capital; if entering, hedge heavily and prefer basis trades until repair signs appear.

11) Dashboard: Operable Cycle Classification

Include:

  • Liquidations, OI, funding, basis.
  • Cross-venue buy/sell ratios.
  • LTH/STH and UTXO ages.
  • Realized Price vs spot.
  • Whale supply and accumulation trend.

Start with: Whale Transactions 2025 Dashboard.

12) Conclusion and Next Steps

Cycle classification demands structure-first thinking. Corrections mend; bears deteriorate. Use forced-seller exhaustion, ratio persistence, cohort repair, cost re-basing, and whale supply as your compass. Headlines follow; structure leads.

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